Autism screening

In 1998, The Lancet published a study by Andrew Wakefield that associated the Measles, Mumps and Rubella vaccine with increasing incidents of autism.  Autism awareness and advocacy groups everywhere began crying out against vaccinations, with voices such as Jenny McCarthy (the mother of an autistic child) declaring that a few kids getting the measles is better any kids having autism.  Wakefield's science has not been replicable, and several of his co-authors have distanced themselves from the article after evidenced emerged that Wakefield was receiving funds from a lawyer suing vaccine companies.

Despite a wealth of science refuting Wakefield's study, and despite The Lancet retracting Wakefield's article in 2010, many parents remain wary of vaccines, maintaining that a link exists.  The figure below, compliments of The Lancet, shows a compelling correlation between rising MMR rates and rising rates of autism diagnoses.  Making matters more complicated is that autism doesn't typically manifest until after the first round of MMR is given at 12 to 15 months of age. The debate is fueled by passionate parents of autistic children, and it can be paralyzing for middle class parents with enough knowledge to be dangerous.  As we have moved into an age of democratic information, a quick search of the internet can provide a wealth of information, and mis-information, on autism and its causes.  Despite strong recommendations for vaccinations by providers, the decision is still hard for well-meaning parents.

A critical blow to the MMR-autism link may have finally come thanks to an article in press by the Journal of Pediatrics.  Researchers in San Diego have developed a 5 minute autism screening tool that can be administered at one year of age.  The assessment has shown a positive predictive value of 75%, meaning three-quarters of the kids that failed the test ultimately showed some type of developmental delay.  Until now, the subtle clues of autism have rarely been detectable early in childhood.  Children with autism do much better with earlier interventions, and this tool will enable clinicians and therapists to begin treatment at a much earlier age.

The study has not yet determined how sensitive the screening assessment is, that being how many cases of autism it misses.  If the screen, administered before the first series of MMR is given, shows a strong negative-predictive value, it could be the final blow to Jenny McCarthy's crusade against MMR vaccinations, not to mention a critical tool in reducing the effects of autism.