Autism screening

In 1998, The Lancet published a study by Andrew Wakefield that associated the Measles, Mumps and Rubella vaccine with increasing incidents of autism.  Autism awareness and advocacy groups everywhere began crying out against vaccinations, with voices such as Jenny McCarthy (the mother of an autistic child) declaring that a few kids getting the measles is better any kids having autism.  Wakefield's science has not been replicable, and several of his co-authors have distanced themselves from the article after evidenced emerged that Wakefield was receiving funds from a lawyer suing vaccine companies.

Despite a wealth of science refuting Wakefield's study, and despite The Lancet retracting Wakefield's article in 2010, many parents remain wary of vaccines, maintaining that a link exists.  The figure below, compliments of The Lancet, shows a compelling correlation between rising MMR rates and rising rates of autism diagnoses.  Making matters more complicated is that autism doesn't typically manifest until after the first round of MMR is given at 12 to 15 months of age. The debate is fueled by passionate parents of autistic children, and it can be paralyzing for middle class parents with enough knowledge to be dangerous.  As we have moved into an age of democratic information, a quick search of the internet can provide a wealth of information, and mis-information, on autism and its causes.  Despite strong recommendations for vaccinations by providers, the decision is still hard for well-meaning parents.

A critical blow to the MMR-autism link may have finally come thanks to an article in press by the Journal of Pediatrics.  Researchers in San Diego have developed a 5 minute autism screening tool that can be administered at one year of age.  The assessment has shown a positive predictive value of 75%, meaning three-quarters of the kids that failed the test ultimately showed some type of developmental delay.  Until now, the subtle clues of autism have rarely been detectable early in childhood.  Children with autism do much better with earlier interventions, and this tool will enable clinicians and therapists to begin treatment at a much earlier age.

The study has not yet determined how sensitive the screening assessment is, that being how many cases of autism it misses.  If the screen, administered before the first series of MMR is given, shows a strong negative-predictive value, it could be the final blow to Jenny McCarthy's crusade against MMR vaccinations, not to mention a critical tool in reducing the effects of autism.

Friday Pick of the Week

As Rachel and I traveled to the beach this past weekend (what did you do in anticipation of the Apocalypse?), today's pick became an unofficial theme song for the weekend.  Florence + The Machine's debut album Lungs came out in 2009 with much celebration, first in the UK and then in the US.  While this selection has been around for  a while, the tune and beat made it an outstanding beach song.  As I listened several times, I began hearing the words, trying to figure out what Florence is singing about.  I'm not exactly sure, but with the celebratory but violent imagery, I think she may be telling the story of a victim of domestic violence fleeing from her abuser.  In a related post, you can read what I expect to be a great new series on women here.  Anyway, here is your pick.  Happy Friday.

A final word on the Apocalypse?

By the fact that you are reading this, I gather that you have not been raptured.  By the fact that I am typing this, you may gather the same about me.  And thus ends the debacle that was May 21 Doomsday.  Or does it?
Harold Camping is not the first, in the name of scripture, to predict a specific date for Judgement Day.  And despite Jesus's warning's against such predictions (and predictors), Camping's followers are not the first group to wholeheartedly sell out their possessions and lives in preparation for the second coming.  The Apocalypse has been incorrectly predicted time and again, by prognosticators both scientific and religious.  The founders of both the Methodist and the Seventh-Day Adventist churches predicted dates for the end of the world.  So despite Camping's failed prophecy, don't expect his followers to abandon ship just yet.

In fact, Camping has not abandoned his own ship.  In an interview with BBC, he maintains that the world has indeed entered into Judgement, though not with the kind of flare he'd expected.  The actual date for the end of the world, he maintains, is October 21, 2011.  So we will have to wait until then to see if he is truly correct.  The benefit for us here is that we get to continue Apocalypse Watch 2011 until that day.  The bad news is that, just as before, people craving escape from this broken world will continue to follow Brother Harold into deceit.

Props to Camping for hedging his bets.  While some of his followers have literally given everything they owned in expectation of the end, he awoke on May 22 still owning a private, for-profit business capable of sustaining him.  Family Radio is worth over $100 million, and I am guessing that won't be much different on the morning of October 22.

I have taken three observations  from this debacle.  First, the bible is an incredibly challenging book to understand.  Debates have raged since before canonization about what Christianity actually means.  I am thankful for the redemption brought through the Church, but I am saddened at the manipulation and confusion that has diverted millions from the goodness of the gospel.  I pray that we would be protected from those who use the scripture to promise health and wealth, to promote violence and to swindle the masses.

Second,  if you want to see how invested a prophet is in his own predictions, check his bank account.  Like Camping, both of the Wesley brothers, the founders of Methodism, individually predicted different dates for the end of the world.  Like Camping, their dates were wrong.  However, John challenged his followers that poverty was a call of the gospel, proclaiming that dying with anything to one's name was shameful.  Unlike Camping, John Wesley lived in poverty, and died with less than $20 to his name.  So long as your prophet projects the end of the world while maintaining a healthy pocketbook, you should look at him with mistrust.

Finally, people are incredibly forgiving.  As I noted before, failed end of the world prophecies have sprouted before into huge, international denominations.  Remember, despite Brother Harold's previous incorrect predictions in 1994, he still maintained a large following, not to mention a lucrative radio network run exclusively by donations.  Even if the world fails to end in October, don't count on all his followers to jump ship.

So keep coming back as Apocalypse Watch 2011 progresses.  And remember, even if the world doesn't end, we still have the end of the Mayan calendar, scheduled for December 2012.  Happy watching.

JFK and the Unspeakable

I've never been big on conspiracy theories.  In college, I picked up Holy Blood, Holy Grail, the book on which Dan Brown based The Da Vinci Code, and knocked it out in a matter of days.  However, after a brief enchantment, I began to note the wide gaps and assumptions made by the authors and easily dismissed them, just as the scholarly community had decades before.  I don't believe in aliens and I think Bin Laden is dead.  So the grassy knoll JFK stuff was not really up my ally.  However, given that I had gotten to know the author's wife, and given that he'd spent 12 years on the book, and given that Jim is a Ph.D. and former university professor, I thought I would give the book a try.  It didn't hurt that names like Oliver Stone had given strong reviews.

JFK and the Unspeakable: Why He Died and Why It Matters by James W. Douglass quickly drew me in.  However, in contrast to the medieval lore and mystery of Holy Blood, Holy Grail, Douglass captured my attention with thoughtful reflections on Christianity and the military-industrial complex.  The book is told through the lens of Thomas Merton, a Trappist monk from Kentucky, who as a poet and writer championed peace and faith.  In 1962, not long before the Cuban Missile Crisis and only a year and half before Kennedy's assassination, Merton wrote these haunting lines regarding nuclear war:

"What is needed is really not shrewdness or craft, but what the politicians don't have; depth, humanity and a certain totality of self-forgetfulness and compassion, not just for individuals but for man as a whole; a deeper kind of dedication. Maybe Kennedy will break through into that some day by miracle. But such people are before long marked out for assassination..."

Douglass writes with tireless consistency, and provides a feasible rationale as to how Kennedy would have beeen marked for death.  Using the resources that have been made available in the last decades, Douglass also provides a coherent and detailed narrative for how the event occurred.  Striking contradictions are neglected by the Warren Report, the government's official investigation of the case, which involved Allen Dulles, the former CIA director who was fired by Kennedy.  From Lee Harvey Oswald's intelligence connections to the remarkably similar plot uncovered by Chicago investigators only a few weeks before the assassination, Douglass brings to light numerous loose ends worth considering.


More than the how of the story, the why of the narrative is where Douglass invests most of his time.  He chronicles Kennedy's conversion from a hawkish presidential candidate running on the platform of "closing the missile gap with the Soviets" to, at times, the lone voice against preemption in his cabinet.  In the wake of the Cuban Missile Crisis, perhaps the moment nearest to apocalypse in the history of the world, Kennedy turned from his cold-warrior mentality in pursuit of lasting peace.  He engaged in secret correspondence with his chief "enemy," Nikita Khrushchev.  He stood against leaders in his government advocating for deceit and violence as a means of winning the Cold War.  He championed Third World liberation, and was ultimately marked as a traitor by those who could not see peace as a viable option.

Can I say for sure that Douglass's postulate is the absolute truth?  No.  But the theory he unfolds is remarkably thorough and consistent.  Even with the critical eye that quickly dismissed previous theories, I have a tough time refuting much of his information.  It has re-shaped the way I comprehend national defense, intelligence and the workings of the military-industrial complex.  The book is certainly worth your consideration.  Highly recommended.

By the way, if you have some time, check out this interview.

The point is moot, neither Rachel nor I have been raptured. #ApocalypseWatch2011

I think that means I've got the better shot at going. #ApocalypseWatch2011

Rachel, full of ridicule: 'I can't believe this conversation is happening.' #ApocalypseWatch2011

Me: 'If I get raptured tomorrow and you are left behind, would you remarry? It would be hard for me to remarry if you got raptured' #ApocalypseWatch2011

Friday Pick of the Week

Well friends, it saddens me to say that this might be the last ever Friday pick of the week, as some are predicting Judgement Day tomorrow evening around 6 pm EDT.  If that is the case, it well could spell the end of Friday picks for a number of possible reasons:

1. I've been raptured.  For those left behind, may I recommend the blueprint laid out by Tim Lahaye and Jerry Jenkins.

2. The Apocalypse is upon us and I won't have time for weekly musical selections to pass along.  You will understand as you are being tormented by the ravages of a graceless world.  Feel free to join me in my pursuit of blueprint laid out by Tim Lahaye and Jerry Jenkins.
3. The aforementioned shit went down and my training proved insufficient.

What better choice for the Friday before the end of the world than Sufjan Stevens?  His most recent album, The Age of Adz, celebrates the life and artwork of the prophet Royal Robertson, ranging in themes from aliens to schizophrenia to the Apocalypse.  The title track is particularly appropriate as, so far as I can tell, it is about Judgement Day.

The end is near

If you are yet unaware, the world is coming to an end.  When is that end? May 21, 2011.  That's Saturday around 5 pm CDT.  Better get your ducks in a row.


At least, that's according to Harold Camping of Family Radio Worldwide.  Harold claims to have examined the scriptures and done the math, and proclaims that Judgement day is upon us.  He's not the only one.  The message has gotten out, and numerous followers are preparing themselves for the rapture by spreading the news all over.  Some have even quit their jobs and budgeted their funds in such a way as to run out on the 21st.

In response to all this, I have two questions: 1. Even if I don't actually believe that the rapture is coming on Saturday (I have some serious misgivings about the rapture anyway), do I get to go? 2. What does all this say about the God we believe in?

Firstly, if this is all true, I hope I get to go.  I read Left Behind in high school, and it is bad news for those who don't get the call.  As I said, I have some misgivings about the theology of the rapture, like when Jesus prayed that God wouldn't take believers out of the world but that He would protect them from the evil one.  But maybe these folks are right.  Maybe God has chosen to make the timing (with which He wouldn't share with Jesus) known to an 89 year old white preacher with a $100 million radio network.  Reading some interviews, like here at NPR, folks have literally given their lives over to what this guy is selling.  NPR also notes, importantly, that Brother Camping has incorrectly predicted the world's end before as September 6, 1994.  (In his defense, he had yet to complete his research.)

If all this isn't true, what does it say about our perceptions of God?  Why is He poised in anger to torture and destroy most of the world?  And why do Christians work so hard to escape the world around us?

Three things strike me about the interviews in the NPR story linked above.  First, there is a tremendous amount of uncertainty among the believers interviewed.  They are not uncertain about Brother Camping's predictions, but they are uncertain about their salvation.  It is as though our God is one who sits in heaven measuring our good deeds, and He's not taking many with Him.  In fact, despite one-fifth of the world claiming Christianity, only 3% will supposedly be rescued.  The need for an in and out group, even within the church, is disheartening.  The same Jesus whose compassion extended to the weak and heavy laden, the orphan and widow, the outcast and the harassed is now going to massacre 97% of the world's population, most of whom used to be within His range of compassion?

A second point I noticed is that all of them are fearful of one thing: the suffering to come.  What could be more American than a gospel that assures avoidance of suffering?  Why are we, as Christians, so committed to a faith that allows us escape from suffering when it is one of the few things that Jesus promised?  Jesus assures few things, and suffering is on the list.  Thankfully, we also get a Helper, and the comfort of knowing that He is coming back.  I don't think Brother Camping would get much of a following if he promised his followers that they get tortured and killed, but somehow Jesus sold the promise of a cross and it worked.  (If that isn't divine intervention, I don't know what is.)

Finally, these folks are wholeheartedly committed to this cause - enduring rejection, forsaking their loved ones and selling all they have.  What if these folks were doing these things not to escape Judgement but to bring Justice?  In some ways, I am jealous of them.  They have found the proverbial pearl of great price, something so valuable that it is worth forsaking all else.  Though Brother Camping may be distorting the gospel and truth of scripture, he has managed to convince these folks that he has something worth value.  What if I believed in something so much that I forsook finances and relationships and social standing?  I am afraid that might actually be the call of the gospel.

Jon Stewart vs. Bill O'Reilly

I found this link thoroughly enjoyable because I think O'Reilly and Stewart actually like each other.  O'Reilly's criticism is a bit ridiculous as we have so many other things to criticize (both right and left), but I like him more after watching this.

Advances in HIV

Thanks, web-books.com

Big news came out this past week in the fight against the spread of HIV.  For years, initiation of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) has been determined by the sufficiency of a patient's immune system.  HAART initiation occurs after either CD4 counts (which is an indication of how well one's immune system is stocked) reach a low threshold or after an AIDS-related event, such as developing a strange disease that does not typically afflict folks with functioning immune systems.
The development of HAART was a game-changer in the AIDS epidemic, shifting the infection from a sure-fire killer to a chronic, manageable disease.  HAART involves some combination of daily medications, not without cost and side-effects, but its increasing availability has provided hope in the fight against AIDS worldwide.


An international study of HIV transmission has shown that those who are infected with HIV who take HAART before reaching that low threshold are 96% less likely to transmit HIV to their sexual partners.  The study, HPTN052, was a randomized control trial (in the realm of clinical science, that's about as good as they get) of over 1600 heterosexual couples from Brazil, sub-Saharan Africa, Thailand and the US scheduled to run through 2015.  However, results were so convincing that the researchers stopped the trial early on so they could get the information out.

This will likely alter treatment plans for those at risk of spreading HIV, and will almost certainly require an even higher ramping up of medication production and distribution worldwide.  But this brings us to the issue of HIV prevention: we already have effective, proven means of preventing its spread.  Condoms and needle-exchange programs (not to mention sexual abstinence) are actually sufficient to prevent the spread of HIV.  The crux of the matter lies in health behavior.  Why are those infected, as well as those at risk of infection, not partaking in the effective means of preventing disease spread?

Another issue is adherence to medication regimens.  As mentioned above, HAART is not without costs, both in terms of finances and side-effects.  Particularly in the US, even those at greatest risk of death by AIDS can be negligent of their medication regimens.  Even missing a few doses can lead to patients rapidly developing resistant strains of the virus.  What happens when we dramatically expand the treated population, particularly to patients who are taking their medications for ostensibly altruistic purposes?  This strategy will require not only an increased production of current medications, but also a wave of research into new medications capable of battling new resistant strains.

Regardless of the drawbacks, this is good news for the global fight against HIV.  Future research will be needed to determine the efficacy of this treatment for men who have sex with men, which were not targeted in this study, as well as in the realm of interventions to promote medication adherence in this broad population.

A new church

For several years, I have talked a big game about wanting to address issues of race and poverty.  I have read articles and books on racism, sociology, theology and health.  I have engaged people in conversation and watched films on the issues.  But James tells me that my beliefs are manifested by my deeds, not my words.

Rachel and I started looking for churches together when she moved to town last winter.  We visited congregations across the denominational spectrum, looking for a home that prioritized our values of racial reconciliation, social justice and the redeeming gospel of Jesus.  And what we found is that these are really hard things.  Most churches do some things well, but almost every church seemed to fall either to one side or the other.  Some where committed to the importance of the gospel while only including issues of race and greed as an addendum, while others delivered soft-serve Jesus while advocating for social issues.  The struggle is real in my life, and when you multiply it to a church-wide level, things get messy fast.  Through our search, as well as a range of conversations with smart people, we began to recognize that if we wanted to participate in racial reconciliation, we would have to step out of our position of majority and into a place where church was not done the way that best fit our preferences.

A few months ago I came across Community Church Without Walls while researching a class project on West End Community Gardens.  Though we didn't know much about the congregation, we decided to visit.  What we found was certainly out of the realm of our preferences.  Our friends Mikey and Lindsay joined us that first night, and I was thankful they came with us as we looked for a house church on Tuscaloosa Avenue in Birmingham's notoriously poor (and thus, in my mind, dangerous) West End.  The first word that came to my mind that night was chaos.  Aside from the four visitors, the only other white person there was the young, soft-spoken pastor, R.G.  I have always attended churches with rich music; here the songs were a capella versions of "This Little Light of Mine" and "Sanctuary."  The service was regularly interrupted by irrelevant questions.  But in the chaos, there was something good.

We have been attending now for a few months, and for the first time in years I feel settled at a church.  CCWW certainly has its issues, and sometimes the chaos is a bit maddening.  But the people in that community know God in different way than I have known Him.  I think the honesty has been most refreshing. One evening during the message and discussion about "turning the other cheek," a woman provided a real-life example of smacking her daughter.  Teen pregnancies are regular announcements.  Last week, during prayer requests, someone said he had recently learned that there was a hit out on his life.  I don't know how to react in those situations, mostly because I've never seen them in church before.  Who are we kidding?  I've never seen them anywhere before.  I don't know what will come of our experience at our new church, but I know this - I'm seeing God in a whole new way.  So maybe I will remain a big talker when it comes to race and poverty.  But at CCWW, I am hoping to see my words sprout into actions.

Friday Pick of the Week

This Friday heralds Secret Stages, a brand new walking music festival situated in Birmingham's downtown district.  Secret Stages is unique in that its primary focus is providing a venue for new music, with a rangy line-up of over 60 up-and-coming artists, both local and national.  Weekend passes are $25.  I encourage you to check it out.

An act featured in the festival is The Green Seed, a local hip-hop trio.  They had the good fortune to play SXSW this year.  "Crack Kills" is a well produced, an appropriate choice for a Birmingham festival.  Enjoy.


The Green Seed - Crack Kills from sugartooth on Vimeo.

It's Mothers Day

Happy Mothers Day.  This is for all the mothers out there, especially Rita.

Friday Pick of the Week

Happy Friday, friends.  Today's pick is chosen for a little different reason.  Last Friday, I was offered a one year HIVCorps fellowship with the Center for Infectious Disease Research in Zambia (CIDRZ).  CIDRZ is a non-governmental organization based in Lusaka, Zambia that partners with UAB to do cutting-edge research in HIV/AIDS.  After days of prayer, deliberation and seeking advice, Rachel and I accepted the position on Wednesday.  While this throws a kink in some of our short-term plans, we are unanimous in that this is an opportunity that holds tremendous benefits for us.  Rachel will interview next week for a position with CIDRZ, and if she is offered a position, it will be another answer to prayers.


Anyway, enough about that; you are here for the Friday Pick of the Week.  Given the circumstances, I couldn't imagine a better selection than Toto's "Africa."  If you'll take the time to watch the video, you will basically experience the entirety of our next year. Gonna take some time to do the things we never had...

'We come crying into the world and we celebrate when we leave.' - Ms. Ernestine

Redemptive Violence

"Truly, truly, I say to you, unless a grain of wheat falls into the earth and dies, it remains alone; but if it dies, it bears much fruit." - John 12:24


We must be careful to celebrate "redemptive violence."  Murdering an enemy of the state was not the best way to crush Jesus's movement.  I fear the repercussions...